A horse will run wild in the end of 2016, be reined in.
In a regulatory grey area of Internet banking, especially individual lending (P2P) had been wild growth in China for 9 years. And across the Internet financial rectification and loan regulatory approach after the combination of P2P network, the industry is being depressed or just out of the bubble?
Key words: Matthew
First look at two annual data.
P2P net credit platforms in the sharp decline in one year. According to net loans, Ying Chan Advisory statistics, by the end of December 2016, net lending industry running platform reach 2,448, 985 was compared to the end of 2015, the annual number of platforms to maintain normal operation step by step reduction of movements.
Does not shine bright in the West in the East. Trading volume has doubled over the previous year and exceeded 2 trillion yuan. 2016 annual net lending industry turnover reached 2,063,872,000,000 yuan, compared to year 2015 net credit turnover (982.3 billion yuan) growth 110%.
"Volume rising faster, by rights 2016 market liquidity is not nervous, don't know why net loans grew so fast," said a market watchers are surging on news.
Ying Chan consulting senior fellow Zhang Yexia News explains the surging volume increases came mostly from larger platform, "said industry data is platform dependent. "
In particular, before 2016 volume P2P 75% per cent of total turnover of the 100, top 200, accounted for more than 85%, the former 90% of 300. In other words, the rest of the more than 2,100 companies 10% the industry's volume, the average annual volume of less than 100 million Yuan.
Total 2017 platform will have what kind of change?
Zhang Yexia said rectification because of platforms has not yet ceased, 2017 net credit operations the number of platforms is expected to fall further, specific rate depends on the filing and compliance. According to the current rate of decline estimated end of 2017 or will fall to around 1200.
Researchers surging on news of another close supervision, "said Internet financial association there is a Chinese saying that goes, final net credit institutions will be left only 200, and 200 are members of the Association. Of course, this is a very long process. "
Keyword two: diversion of consumer finance
On August 24, 2016, regulation boots drop.
Borrowing information intermediaries in the network of the interim measures for the management of operational activities before officially, Internet financial enterprises CEO in closed-door meetings with regulators "ridicule" the financial license-free, unregulated legal profession: "we are carrying the head work, accidentally would be termed ' illegal fund-raising. " International study called artemisinin or cure
Regulation, it was also unhappy, can only divert consumer finance.
Interim measures, the most eye-catching is the 17th loan amount limit: credit information agency the same natural person in the same network platforms and different platforms of loan balance limit of no more than 200,000 yuan and 1 million Yuan; borrowing the same legal person or other organization on the same network information intermediary platforms or different platforms of loan balance limit of no more than RMB 1 million and 5 million Yuan.
Originally dependent on "single mode" platform had to start publicity started doing small, or directly into the areas of consumer finance. Time, "10 trillion market" becomes the aim of blue ocean. But whether everyone is doing in this area, the industry is in doubt.
"Consumer finance in two directions, the first free cash loan, the second is paid. Free, a lot of Internet companies in it, ants and the Jingdong, concentration is very high in the future. Based on scene, the future will be a lot of subdivisions, such as travel and Exchange gold, or home improvement and mutual payments, but no apparent advantage gold in many segments, "said Zhang Yexia.
Although there is no obvious advantage, but Zhang Yexia thinks there is no systemic risk, "suning consumer finance is a 10.37% bad debt rate, but the CBRC approved the creation of a consumer financial company's bad debt rate is only about 4%, banks are also doing consumer finance, malnutrition rates are basically 1%. Consumer finance basic small, bad loans relative to control, it is difficult to systemic risks. "
Ninth visiting Dong Ximiao, a researcher at the finance Research Institute of Renmin University says, "help net demand for loans to finance consumption, as a next step transformation direction can be expected. But do consumer finance loans without a license, consumption rates of the financial sector and high lending platform if there is no corresponding risk-control capability of the network, also will be the ' Feather '. "
P2P executives doesn't rate consumer finance, does not intend to get into the field. Such as stone Song Mei, Chairman of investment and financial founder, surging on news that: "P2P depends on high risk high yield covered before, while consumer finance, risk remains high, high income gone, looks like a blue ocean, quickly became the Red Sea. In the case of no wind control core, the so-called ' second loan lending '' for half an hour ' were very dangerous, so I ain't touching consumer finance. After all, in case of no scenario, BAT would not dare to do. "
Three keywords: via gold exchange
After the release of provisional measures, in addition to the borrowing limit, P2P platform are also requiring banks to funds depository, the prohibition of assignment and set aside 12 months period of rectification. The same time, where there was little active trading of financial assets, as information intermediaries and exchanges and P2P platform began to undertake the "big one" as the underlying asset, and split into small asset transfers to individuals, including many unqualified investors, so as to achieve private debt "collected alms" effect. In fact, around the gold exchange, the gold exchange centre, stock exchange private debt, the Stock Exchange Center, targeted financing, equity mortgage, ABS and other non-standard assets are very popular, P2P via financing is not new.
The pattern designated by the regulatory treatment. On January 9, the SFC to clean all kinds of trading places the Inter-Ministerial Joint Conference was held in Beijing, Liu Shiyu, Chairman of the SFC. The meeting made it clear that some financial asset exchange will split, such as transfer of rights in proceeds disguised break through the 200 limit, for illegal public offering, will use the time concentration and control, effectively solve the problem of illegal trading venues exist.
Conference also pointed out that, through place Exchange mapping survey results showed that, currently domestic total 1131 home trading places, from regional see, trading places number over 50 home of main distribution in East, respectively for Dalian 86 home, and Hebei 79 home, and Shanghai 71 home, and Jiangsu 70 home, and Qingdao 66 home, and Zhejiang 66 home, and Liaoning 57 home, and Heilongjiang 56 home, and Beijing 50 home, domestic violations trading places has over 300 home, accounted for than close 30%.
But before this revamp, "Qiao XING default event" broke out, known as the "four markets" equity exchange was pushed on the cusp.
Guangdong, the full name of Guangdong financial high-tech stock exchange Center limited liability company, is one of 40 regional equity trading centre, directly by the Financial Affairs Office of Guangdong provincial supervisor. Last December, Hui zhou Qiao XING telecommunications industrial limited private debt maturity cannot be honored, in the products, Qiao XING telecommunications and Qiao XING telecommunications as issuers of private debt, Center of Guangdong financial high-tech equity deals by record and publish product information to the Treasury by platform.
Cosun debt issue aroused public concerns about local assets such as exchange control of the gold exchange. At present is mainly responsible for the supervision of the main local finance Office of the stock exchange, but the real punishment and supervision have not been in place.
In above cleanup reorganization Conference held zhiqian, Dong Ximiao on on surging News said, "gold make by must is 2017 regulatory of focus, this year must will introduced on gold make by cleanup reorganization of file and related activities, network loan platform can with gold make by cooperation, but must to in legal collection rules range within, gold make by must to negative up audit of obligations, overseas XING debt is negative example. "
Market commentators South of fenqing, Harmonia asset management partner Chen Yu believes that gold exchange strictly oversee the implementation difficulties "in the screen credits ' via ' before China each province has one or two gold exchange, but never really used. Then this wave of ' flow '-that is, the company Internet bought them, use them as channel, business began to grow. I think Guangdong this out is likely to be heavily regulated, but most everything is fine the Exchange will be allowed. So this thing is temporarily unable to judge. "
New year, Internet financial campaign has entered a crucial period, interim measures for the compliance test to enter the reserved half of modification of the 12-month period.
"Internet financial rectification, especially illegal fund-raising against further people, some people are not very understanding, investor education is still not perfect, from this perspective, the mutual gold treatment has only just begun, there are still a lot of work to do," said Dong Ximiao.
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